The global economic crisis deepened in the first half of 2009 and led to decline in economic output which was felt around the world. Experts are already forecasting a decline in GDP of 3.7 % for the OECD area for the whole of 2009. One of the effects of the global economic crisis was a double-figure downturn in international trade, which further exacerbated this trend. Even though comprehensive packages to aid economic recovery were launched in most industrialised countries, this was not enough to stop the collapse in economic output in the period under review – the situation is only expected to stabilise in industrialised countries in the second half of 2009. While a decline in GDP in the Euro-zone of 2.5 % was recorded for the first quarter of 2009, experts are assuming a decline of between 4.1 % and 5.1 % for the total year. According to a forecast by WIFO, the Austrian economy is expected to shrink by 3.4 % in 2009. A similar development is expected for the other EU countries in which Hypo Group Alpe Adria is active. For Germany, a decline in economic output of 5.4 % is forecast for 2009; for Italy, a decline of 4.4 %. Although a moderate decline of 3.4 % is assumed for Slovenia, the economic crisis can be felt more keenly in Hungary, with a minus of 6.3 %. Experts are confident that the bottommost point will be reached in the second half of 2009 and cite the wide-ranging efforts to stabilise the economic situation by the governments of the countries affected, as well as the recovery in international financial and stock markets in the first half of the year as evidence of this.

Although it is expected that a sustained recovery will take place in Western Europe in the second half of 2009, experts are assuming that the economic output of Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe will remain flat for a longer period of time. This is attributed, on the one hand, to the fact that these countries were hit by the crisis later, and on the other hand, to the fact that the respective governments have initiated fewer and less wide-ranging stabilisation measures. While the countries of Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe grew much more strongly than the rest of Europe in recent years, as part of the process of economic catch-up, these regions are now showing a clear decrease in growth differential compared to the Euro-zone. The drastic cuts in industrial production as well as the devaluation of some of the currencies, which further reduces the consumption possibilities for private households, have further aggravated the situation. Experts are generally assuming a decline in economic output of 3.7 % for Central and Eastern Europe in 2009, although owing to the distinctly inhomogeneous nature of this region, the individual countries will be affected to a greater or lesser degree.